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Moldova Is the Spark Russia Has Been Waiting For

Moldova’s withdrawal from the Russian-led CIS marks a decisive geopolitical break that strips Moscow of a key lever in the post-Soviet space and heightens the risk that Russia will activate Transnistria as a pretext for escalation. The article argues that this move could open a short, high-risk window in which Russia seeks to destabilize Moldova and threaten Odesa, aiming to landlock Ukraine and reshape the war’s geometry before its own logistical limits force a halt.